Inventory Climbs as Fall Slows Sales
This is the time of year when we expect the market to slow down a bit. After all, residential real estate is a cyclical business. In island communities, things boom when the tourists are in town – usually the chillier months of the year for folks in the lower 48. Around these parts, the market always cools following Labor Day weekend.
And yet, reviewing the latest statistics for August it feels as though there could be more evidence for a shift from a sellers market to a more neutral marketplace.
Starting with the city of Boulder Colorado, homes and attached dwellings (condos, town houses, the occasional duplex), year over year August sales definitely slowed in the city. Condo sales were down by a third for the month. Sales of single family houses were off by nine sales from the previous year.
Keeping in mind that for the entire year, we are still up in overall sales versus last year, August might just be a funky month. Maybe a lot of folks took vacation. Maybe the school year started earlier or a large number of people vacationed to areas along the Solar Eclipse. That might account for the reduced sales.
And for the year, we remain up in overall sales. But, let me put on my Devil’s Advocate hat and say, “if this trend continues into the Fall, then we are changing from a Sellers’ Market to something different.”
Inventory of Attached Dwellings Explodes
Take a look at the number of attached dwellings for sale. It pretty much doubled. Well, technically the stat is 68.8% up, but I look at 77 last year available, 130 available this year – that looks close to twice as much to me. The affect is – you need to be in line on price to be certain of a sale. I think we’ll see some sharp condos coming to the market with owners once more making certain their places show great inside and out.
The Sellers Market Is Alive And Well
Venture a few miles out of Boulder to Lafayette and the statistics tell a different tale. We are clearly in a strong sellers market. Inventory inched up for single family homes, sales climbed dramatically and days on market plummeted. Playing into this – the new Trails at Coal Cree subdivision is starting to close transactions this year. New construction is desperately needed in the market and these larger family homes are going like hotcakes.
And even with this additional inventory, we are seeing homes last far fewer days than a year ago. The statistic says homes sold in 37.3% fewer days than last year in August. That’s a Big Time Improvement!
Attached homes in Lafayette didn’t fare as well as houses. Inventory climbed, days on market leaped, Days to Contract doubled. However, for condo sellers, we saw the median price increase dramatically by better than fifty percent.
No Two Markets Identical
Louisville, long one of the most desirable places to call home, is a mixed bag. The number of resales for single family homes in August is up. the number of sales for the year is up a whopping 31%. Condo sales are exactly the same number as last year. The inventory of condos and houses is down.
Looking at these numbers, Louisville remains a strong sellers market. Real estate is all about location. Boulder could be seeing some slowing as buyers are priced out of the market place. Remember, the average price in Boulder has been closer to a million bucks lately. That’s going to take a toll on entry level home buyers. And Louisville is perfectly positioned to see a strong sales uptick as folks move five minutes down the road.
Superior Is An Outlier
I think August is an outlier month when it comes to discussing Superior. We are finally seeing some inventory from the long awaited Downtown Superior Project. This community is very popular with families (think school aged children), so August is a busy month – last of vacation, school prep, buying school supplies. Understandably, fewer sales would be expected. But, the statistics show the number of homes available for sale plummeting. So, I think best to wait and see what the September numbers come in at. August just looks like an unusual month at the moment.
I’m going to go on the record and suggest the total solar eclipse really had an impact on our regional real estate market this past August.
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